HOW WILL CRAIGSLIST DIE?

The web is rife with rumors of a "Craigslist Killer".

I'm not talking about a very small minority of the crazy Craigslist users, those looking to rape, maim, scam, murder or otherwise engage in psychotic acts, but rather, we're talking about competing web sites or technologies which will through an act of innovation and creative destruction, render Craigslist obsolete and irrelevant in the near future.

Remember MySpace?  No one envisioned its fall from grace to be as stunning and quick as the fall of the Berlin Wall, but it happened, so could the same thing happen to Craigslist?

The answer is yes.  But what you, dear reader, may want to know is just how Craigslist will die, and when?

Many are predicting that it will happen soon, within the next few years and not be due to the emergence of a web competitor like Backpage but due to a shift in the way people use the web.

As more and more people rely on mobile phones, and apps on the phones, they are turning to applications such as OfferUp, a mobile app that lets you sell things through your smartphone.

It's currently in the top ten of the app store, and just to see how well it works, post an ad on the app for something you want to sell.  You will most likely hear that cash register ring a dozen times, just like you used to hear "you've got mail" with Craigslist a few years to a decade ago when placing an ad.  OfferUp is getting BIG AND BIGGER EACH DAY and over the next year, you will probably hear more and more people talk about using apps on their phones to buy and sell things rather than Craigslist.  Craigslist may very well be the web's classified cemetery that day, a place where people never want to go and reminded of what was and what now....is.

Is OfferUp going to be the "Craigslist killer", the app that eventually becomes so cool, it steals market share away from Craigslist to the point that Craigslist becomes a ghost town?

Maybe, but maybe not.

OfferUp has some problems, they also treat their users like shit.  Post ads they don't like with commercial content and your account will "ghost" every future ad.  Their customer service through Sophie is clueless and won't help you there.  I'll write another post on how to get past that shortly though by using unique IMEIs and using virtualization engines for smart phones for those that want to take advantage of the advertising potential of OfferUp.

However, back to the subject at hand.....like Craigslist, OfferUp doesn't realize people find just as much value from small business ads as they do from their neighbors.  If they didn't, small businesses would not be placing their ads there, or at least trying to place them, and people would not be responding to the ones that make it that then encourages these small businesses to keep trying to place ads so they can keep their phones ringing.

In OfferUp's efforts to appease a small minority of users that don't want small business ads and tend to be more vocal than the silent majority (e.g., meaning they are trolls), mobile apps like OfferUp essentially filter out the vast majority of small business ads most users wouldn't mind seeing as it gives them choices, and choices are why people use the web, because it creates competition with price, quality and customer service, all which result in a win-win for the consumer and end-user.

Will OfferUp displace Craigslist? It's hard to predict whether one web site or mobile app will win out.  I really don't know.  OfferUp has attracted some hefty interest from venture capital though which will allow them to dish out a business model that makes absolutely no sense apart from the fact that it's a cool app, so they at least will be able to handle their server traffic for the next couple years and allow themselves to grow without charging fees that might lower their usage rates quite considerably.  They have a chance to be a real contender.

You can read more about OfferUp's funding round here:

http://recode.net/2015/03/05/investors-are-drooling-over-two-new-craigslist-competitors-one-might-raise-100-million/

However, I really don't think that's how Craigslist's days will end, I don't think it will be a slow death via more innovative competitors (ones that don't rely on law firms to stifle competition).  I sadly believe it's possible Craigslist will die with a BANG that will make headlines across the world.

Since I started this post off with the subject of a "Craigslist killer", I'm predicting the possibility of something very awful but which just sounds like the inevitable the more and more you interact with a few people in this world that are real fucking crazy, I mean, bat-shit crazy, and one which will probably post on Craigslist one day and get flagged, and post again and get flagged, and combine that with Craigslist's attitude towards people that break their rules, which probably accounts for 50% of their loyal user base, and you have a recipe for disaster.

This blog predicts that Craigslist will shut down not because someone is able to do the online classifieds better, quicker and cooler, but because they will eventually piss off one of the small minority of psychos that use the site to the point where they will just waltz in there with a shotgun and blow the place to hell, and Craigslist will never recover from the loss of that as eBay will take over and turn the site to a fee-ringing pile of shit, no better than a slot machine.

Why do I predict this?  

One day I was on the train, and I listened to two people talking about, well, what do you know, posting on Craigslist.  I didn't reveal myself, being Robin Hood, I prefer to stay quiet, listen, be mindful of the world around like Walt Whitman celebrating all of its small treasures and pleasures.....but one of the conversants, this latino guy that looked and talked like a real gangbanger, was talking about how he hated Craigslist because every time he placed an ad, it would get flagged.

He got very upset talking about this.  Visibly upset, like where people moved seats.

As the conversation continued, I learned more (as I myself moved a seat down).  From the sound of it, he had been posting an ad for his disabled father, trying to get jobs painting to help pay for his surgery, and Craigslist was shutting him down.  During this conversation, the guy swore that if his dad died, he would buy a greyhound bus ticket to wherever the hell they were and "fuck the shit" out of Craigslist, making a gun motion with his hand.  The other guy he was talking to laughed (not apparently realizing those people he would "fuck the shit" out of might have families just like him and doing their jobs to protect ALL craigslist users from the pieces of shit scammers that prey on them).

I highly doubt this gangbanger would actually do what he said, like many people, he's probably all talk and completely full of shit.  But it got me thinking....I mean, if I were Craigslist, I would be really, really worried about security.

Craigslist is not some corporation with security, it's a house in the middle of San Francisco (see photo), and more importantly, apart from the "ADT" style of security they offer, most companies don't make it their business to piss off their customer base and completely ignore their concerns where you would definitely want to think about security.

For example, you'll find their Better Business Bureau reviews they have 171 complaints, none advertising how wonderful their experience with the big Craig was:

http://www.bbb.org/greater-san-francisco/business-reviews/internet-services/craigslistorg-in-san-francisco-ca-49921/complaints

Consumer Affairs, also, full of so many complaints regarding apathy and poor service:

https://www.consumeraffairs.com/online/craigslist.html?page=2

The web is absolutely full of thousands and thousands of people disgusted and discouraged by Craigslist.  So what will happen when they piss off one of those psychos?  

The psycho is not going to see Craigslist as some friendly neighbor, he's going to see them as the enemy, the sole source of his life's problems and issues, a monopoly that doesn't give a rat's ass about the small guy trying to get by, a corporation that has the highest return per employee of every company in Silicon Valley ($1,800,000.00 million per employee), and as something that is sick and diseased and he will see himself as the cure, a medieval type of cure that kills itself while killing the patient.

This psycho will be a person that has turned to the dark side, to a life of festering hatred rather love, understanding and patience.  He will not be a Jedi.  Most likely, he or even she will be a lost cause like a bat out of Syria.

I hope I am wrong, and the world can and will be a kinder place where everyone gets along with one another in a spirit of friendship, family and compassion.....because I think Craigslist can do better, a lot better, both to those that use the site and those that post ads on the site to the point where no one would have any reason to get pissed off at Craigslist, only other users that they could easily then just ignore (as you do in normal life when someone annoys you)....and if Craigslist could just try.....try and get past their hubris and just manage to make their site for the good of all by not being so condescending in their spam-prevention efforts, and letting the people that use Craigslist do the spam prevention job for them.....they would make everyone happy by mainly:

1. Eliminating the auto-filtering! 
2. Allowing users to flag down posts they don't like (so that individual user has the option to no longer see posts from that author), not so they become invisible or flagged for everyone else!  
3. If posts/accounts get enough flags, the ad or the account user/email should have a user rating/reviews but not be removed unless it's doing something clearly illegal or unethical, it should be a true community, and a true community that moderates itself, not a dictator making decisions for its community and that might be sweeping up normal users in the process that might need to post more than you'd like simply because your system already auto-deleted their first few postings because they happened to post on an IP address someone else spammed with.  

And while Craigslist can never make everyone happy, they can at least try to make their site FAIR and stop being such stubborn.....ah, what's the word.....turds?

Craig and Jim, people just want to be free.  Let them be.  And let your site grow in the process.  A famous philosopher once wrote that change is always bad unless its change for the better, so change for the better rather than being the stagnant, silent beast....turn from a turd into a bird.....do A/B testing, find what works, what makes the silent majority happy through data, and build, build, build on that, don't let your site die a silent death or piss off some hommie that turns homicidal.

If Craigslist just tried, took even a few hundred thousand annually to work on customer service, and maybe another million to develop and implement a new moderation system that can shut down the ruthless psychos and scammers that would harm others through a real community moderation system that's simple and works, maybe Craigslist then can be a company everyone loves, rather than one everyone loves to trash.

People trash Craigslist because they think you don't care.  So stop.  Enough is enough.  Be the company you ought to be, rather than the company you are.